The sad thing is that the American public is being duped into thinking that oil has actually risen in price more than it really has.
I am just getting my feet wet in some forex (foreign exchange) trading, and I have become frightfully aware of how little the dollar is worth compared to last year.
Last July, a US dollar would equal $1.24 in Swiss francs. Today, it equals $1.05 - a loss of 18%. Similarly, the value of the Euro has changed from $1.30 to a $1.55 - a loss of 19%.
So - the price of a barrel of oil HAS gone up world-wide in the last few months (due largely by the increased demand of other countries who have had a substantial increase in drivers - and therefore consumption needs) - but the sad truth is that it now takes almost 20% MORE IN US DOLLARS to buy a barrel of oil in the world market (at its current price) than it would have at the value of last summer’s dollar.
Simply put, it now takes more US dollars to buy a foreign commodity than it did months ago - and it makes it appear as if that commodity has risen that greatly in price. But, it has not risen as much for the Swiss and the users of the Euro as it has for us - because it takes more of our weakened dollars to buy that barrel of oil than it does on the other side of the pond.
The reason?
Well, for one thing - the talk of the coming (and some say it’s already here) recession has driven the price of the dollar down in the world markets.
But, a recession is defined by 2 consecutive quarters of a loss in growth. The last quarter of 2007 shows a GAIN of .5% and this latest report of the first quarter of this year shows another GAIN of .6%.
Those were small gains, compared to previous growth, but the real truth is - WE HAVEN’T HAD EVEN 1 QUARTER OF LOSS - MUCH LESS THE 2 CONSECUTIVE ONES NEEDED TO DEFINE A RECESSION.
A poll last week showed that most Americans felt we were definitely in a recession, while the polls also showed that 76% said they were personally still doing OK or Great.
So, what’s the problem?
One of the only hopes for the Democrats is to convince the American public that the economy is in far worse shape than it is.
But, is it really? It is certainly in a downturn - but is also showing a gain for each quarter. In fact, some economists even feel that the very latest job figures are indicating that the economy may have bottomed-out - and is already starting to recover.
News that is disastrous for the Democrats in November!
So, the constant overwhelming feeling among most that we are headed to (or are already in) a recession - due largely to the incomplete and inaccurate reporting of the media - is largely responsible for the lack of confidence in the dollar abroad - and is a cause of its declining value.
So - it now takes more US dollars to buy oil today - because the US dollars are not worth as much overseas as they once were.
The shrinking value of the dollar is more significant to the higher cost at the pump than the amount that a barrel of oil has increased in price.
Stop the gloom and doom talk about the recession - and the dollar will again rise in value - and like magic - it will seem like the price of oil has dropped.
But you and I will both know then that it no longer takes as many US dollars to buy a barrel of oil than it did.
So - I think the government would be smarter if they better informed the American public that all is not gloom and doom - than to bring about a windfall profits tax and thereby take away incentives for big business.
And with that - they should allow drilling in Anwar and explore nuclear energy. I was 10 miles from Three Mile Island when they almost had a meltdown - so I fully understand the dangers. But, it’s 30 years later and we have not had problems since. technology has come a long way since then.
We should better explore and utilize alternate forms of energy.